Dave Waddell/The Windsor Star
After Windsor and Essex County added nearly as many people in 2023 as it had in the previous two decades combined, this historic pace of population expansion appears to only be accelerating in 2024.
“It’s pretty explosive growth,” said Workforce WindsorEssex CEO Justin Falconer.
Statistics Canada reports the region welcomed 31,958 people in 2023, to swell the Windsor-Essex population to 468,019.
Over the past two years, the local population has grown by 41,877 compared to the 35,333 people added to the census rolls between 2002 and 2021.
“Between 2000 and 2021, our population grew by a yearly average of .6 per cent,” said Falconer. “In 2022-2023 it was 7.3 per cent or about 12 times as fast — it’s record-breaking population growth.”
Historically, the largest population surges in Windsor-Essex’s history were 1921 to 1931 (57,205) and 1961 to 1971 (48,181). In the period from 2005 to 2011, the area actually lost 9,116 residents.
Falconer said the preliminary Statistics Canada data for 2024 indicate the region’s population growth continued to accelerate over the first seven months of the year.
“Based on the estimates we get from the Labour Force Survey, it looks like 2024 is going to be another stellar year,” Falconer said. “I see more of the same.
“Another 31,958 or possibly more would be incredible. If we do that, Windsor and Essex County will be knocking on the door of having 500,000 people.”
Falconer said the COVID-19 pandemic seems to have been the trigger point for the start of this surge in population growth. He said when people in larger urban centres began to look to escape to smaller communities with more space, Windsor was discovered.
“COVID reversed the traditional pattern of people leaving smaller communities to go to bigger communities for job opportunities and quality of life,” Falconer said.
“After the pandemic and the introduction of remote work, people changed how they looked at their work life.
People emphasized quality of life — working to live rather than living to work.”
People from elsewhere also discovered Essex/Windsor’s undervalued real estate market, said Falconer. He notes that, although prices have risen significantly, the area remains Ontario’s most affordable community among the province’s census metropolitan areas.
“Clearly the secret is out,” said Falconer, who added landing the NextStar Energy battery plant is the ‘jewel in the crown’ of further economic and population growth.
Falconer said the largest sources of new arrivals are international immigrants, international students, temporary workers, non-permanent residents and refugees.
The influx of people brings both opportunities and challenges to the region. Just where to put all these newcomers being the most obvious question.
Windsor-Essex County Association of Realtors president Maggie Chen argues the new residents haven’t really impacted the home-buying market. Prices have remained stable for the past year and there hasn’t been a frenzy of activity.
“I don’t see newcomers as buyers the first year,” Chen said. “The population growth isn’t generating buyers — they tend to rent first.
“The rental market is where they’re going until they can afford the housing market.”
Developers are also recognizing the opportunities in the affordable multi-residential housing market.
In June alone, there was a surge in Windsor area starts for multi-residential construction. Those projects will create 305 units. New starts for single-family home construction also jumped 87 per cent.
“What we’re seeing right now is helping a lot of temporary workers into rental properties,” Chen said. “We’re seeing four of five people renting a house. It’s hard to get a truthful picture of the rental and housing market right now.”
Windsor-Essex Regional Chamber of Commerce CEO Rakesh Naidu said the surge in population also presents challenges in being able to provide the infrastructure, transportation and health care services the growing population needs.
“The pace at which we’ve grown hasn’t allowed for us to increase the services and infrastructure at the same pace,” Naidu said. “There are some service deficits as a result.”
However, Naidu said the challenges of growth are the ones a community wants rather than the alternative. He said the benefits of a growing population to bolster the workforce, more economic activity and increased tax revenues are the building blocks of prosperity.
“It’s simple math,” Naidu said. “More people means more demand for products and services and more opportunities.”
Naidu noted there are now a record number of people employed (192,900) with an available workforce of 212,000, which is also the largest in Windsor-Essex’s history.
“It gives us the workforce and the potential skills that we’ll need,” he said.
“The chamber is seeing a diversification of owners and businesses that have never existed here, servicing different populations. We’re seeing micro and small businesses operating from homes.”
Naidu expects local population growth will remain strong as two of the community’s largest employers, Stellantis’s Windsor Assembly Plant and NextStar Energy, are entering a hiring phase and the Gordie Howe International Bridge is about a year away from completion.
The Conference Board of Canada agrees, predicting the Windsor region will enjoy the highest average GDP growth in Canada over the next four years.
“When you look for bright spots in Canada, there’s not any brighter than here,” Naidu said.
When it comes to population movement, Essex-Windsor has been enjoying positive net migration from Toronto, Hamilton, Barrie, Oshawa, Kitchener-Waterloo, Guelph, St. Catharines, Saskatoon, Regina and Montreal.
But more people are leaving Windsor-Essex than arriving when it comes to London, Chatham-Kent, Ottawa-Gatineau, Halifax, Winnipeg and Vancouver.